That's the title of Vanderbilt Professor Brian Fitzpatrick's article in today's DJ. He argues that "Smaller circuits might very well make fewer outlier decisions" in "both directions" (i.e., from the left or right). He then uses math to prove this, looking at "the probability of randomly selecting a three-judge panel with a majority of outlier judges" -- and the en banc process isn't an answer, because it too can end up with a majority-outlier panel. And he argues that "For the last 20 years, the 9th Circuit has had the highest reversal rate of any regional circuit."
In other news... "President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he nominated his first circuit judge, tapping Judge Amul Thapar, of the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Kentucky, to sit on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit." See Thapar Is First to Be Tapped by Trump for Circuit Judgeship