More CSC Number-Crunching

Today's DJ presents part two of Kirk Jenkins' analysis of the Cal Supreme Court using hard data, in The Justices of the California Supreme Court: 2017 By The Numbers.

• Civil. On the civil side in 2017, Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye and Justice Chin led the court, each voting in the majority in 40 of the 41 civil cases they participated in, or 97.56 percent. Justice Werdegar was next, voting with the majority in 97.14 percent of her civil cases. Justices Cuéllar and Liu were tied, each voting with the majority in 92.86 percent of the court's civil cases, while Justice Corrigan was close behind at 92.68 percent. Justice Kruger was least often in the majority, voting with the majority in 90.48 percent of civil cases.
• Civil. In 2017, the evidence suggests that Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye and Justices Werdegar, Chin, Corrigan and sometimes Cuéllar formed a fairly cohesive central wing of the court in civil cases. Justices Werdegar and Cuéllar agreed in 97.14 percent of civil cases. The chief justice and Justice Werdegar agreed in 97.06 percent of civil cases. The chief justice agreed with Justice Chin in 95.12 percent of cases, and with Justice Corrigan 95 percent of the time. Justices Werdegar and Chin agreed in 94.12 percent of their cases. Meanwhile, the eight combinations of Justices scoring lowest in civil case agreement all included at least one Democratic appointee -- Justices Cuéllar and Liu, 90.48 percent; Justices Corrigan and Liu, 90.24 percent; Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye and Justice Liu, 90.24 percent; Justices Chin and Liu, 90.24 percent; Justices Kruger and Werdegar, 88.57 percent; Justices Corrigan and Cuéllar, 87.8 percent; Justices Kruger and Chin, 87.8 percent; and Justices Kruger and Cuéllar, 83.33 percent.

Conclusions:

• First, despite increasing controversy about the lengthy Werdegar vacancy, the court seems to be coping so far with no reduction in its productivity.
• Second, delays in processing cases continue to be a problem, with non-death cases routinely taking a year and a half to oral argument, and death penalty cases taking eight to 10 years to be argued.
• Third, reports in 2015 and 2016 that the court might shift leftwards in death penalty cases seem to be premature, at least for now.
• Fourth, largely because the Republican nominees' agreement rate tends to be somewhat higher, the court's moderate center has led the court so far -- Chief Justice Cantil-Sakauye and Justices Chin, Werdegar and either Cuéllar or Corrigan in civil cases, and the chief justice and Justices Chin, Werdegar and Kruger in criminal cases.
• So far, the shift leftwards hasn't happened, but with Justice Werdegar in the dominant center on both sides of the docket, Gov. Brown's opportunity to name her successor promises to tell us a lot about where the court is likely to go in the next several years.