Tuesday, October 31, 2023

SCOTUS 3-3-3?

 Law360 has Are Justices Split 3-3-3? New Term Is Already Offering Clues

  • The U.S. Supreme Court's dawning term is quickly shedding light on fissures in a six-justice supermajority, providing new evidence of areas where the conservative camp isn't predictably rock-solid despite its rapid reshaping of the nation's legal landscape.
  • When people describe a 3-3-3 court, they're usually picturing Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson on the left, Justices Clarence Thomas, Samuel A. Alito Jr. and Neil Gorsuch solidly on the right, and Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. with Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett a little less to the right.
  • Although it's tempting to think this could be a tiebreaker term — one that shows which of the prior two terms truly foreshadowed the supermajority's long-term ambitions — clarity could take time. The supermajority is conservative as a whole, but it consists of individuals with idiosyncrasies that have led to unexpected decisions — and to unexpected rapport with members of the liberal minority.
  • Ever since Justice Roberts in 2012 broke ranks with conservatives who voted unsuccessfully to nullify the Affordable Care Act, he's been laser-focused on safeguarding the Supreme Court's legitimacy; his year-end report in 2021 noted that "public trust is essential," and he declared in a 2018 statement that the federal judiciary does not have "Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges." Experts say a similar sentiment could be central to Justice Kavanaugh's jurisprudence.